29th May 2002

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A South American team will win the World Cup.

That's the bold prediction from sports scientists and statisticians at the University of Ulster on the eve of the kick-off at the world's most important soccer tournament.

The heart says Argentina, the head says Brazil, according to the scientists - who have carried out a painstaking statistical analysis of every match taking place in South Korea and Japan over the next month.

The scientists used two methods of determining which two teams would reach the final in Yokohama, Japan on June 30.

In the first a focus group comprising of five football-mad boffins - a university-style pools panel - gave their verdict on every match using information such as the quality of teams, previous results, even the state of David Beckham's broken metatarsal.

Their verdict was Argentina to meet Italy in the final with the South Americans coming out on top.

In the second model a computer was used to simulate the World Cup ties. World rankings as issued by FIFA this month, the distance teams have had to travel to compete, the effect of switching between South Korea and Japan, and vice versa, for games, and the rest period between matches were all programmed.

The simulation was run 2000 times and the result - Brazil to beat Italy in the final and lift the trophy for the fifth time.

The scientists gave home fans a little to cheer about. Both models agreed that England and Ireland would finish runners-up in their opening groups but would lose to France and Spain respectively in the first knockout stage.

Dr Peter O'Donoghue, a lecturer in sports studies at the University of Ulster, said: "The result of our research is a classic case of head versus heart - number crunching against subjective judgment.

"It will be interesting to see how the tournament pans out and whether the human brain or the computer is the best way of analysing such unpredictable contests as a World Cup.

"Although our predictions are a bit of fun, this is a serious piece of research. After the tournament we intend to write a research paper on the relative merits of qualitative versus quantitative methods. It will provide good scope for discussion among my sports studies students next year."

Dr O'Donoghue is a football fan, travelling to see Coventry City play at least once every season.

For further information, please contact:

Press Office Department of Communication and Development
Telephone: 028 9036 6178
Email: pressoffice@ulster.ac.uk