3rd July 2003

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Susan Edgar, a sport, exercise and leisure student of the University of Ulster, has found that being born early in the calendar year increases the chance of becoming a Grand Slam tennis player.

Susan examined the dates of birth of the 376 tennis players who participated in the ladies' and men's singles events at the four Grand Slam tennis tournaments in 2002. Susan found that 113 were born between January and March, 107 between April and June, 95 between July and September and only 61 between October and December.

This is significantly different to the expected uniform distribution at a 99.9% confidence level. The season of birth bias is worse in ladies' singles than in men's singles; 60.5% of the ladies' competing in Grand Slam tournaments were born in the first 6 months of the year compared with 56.5% of the men.

This pattern was not effected by region of birth, with more players born in the first half of the year in both the Southern Hemisphere and the Northern Hemisphere.

Therefore, the most probable explanation for the season of birth bias in Grand Slam tennis is the ITF (International Tennis Federation) junior competition year has a cut off date of the 1st of January. This leads to player players born early in the calendar year having a relative age advantage over their competitors during their junior years.

While there may be more Grand Slam players born in the first quarter of the year than in any other quarter of the year, season of birth does not have a significant impact on the success within Grand Slam tournaments or prize money earned. Twenty-three of the 2002 Grand Slam singles players had won a Grand Slam singles tournaments. There was almost an even split with 12 of these player born in the first half of the year. Therefore, being born early in the junior competition year may increase a player's chances of being a participant in senior Grand Slam singles tennis but it does not help them become a Grand Slam champion.

This has led Susan to conclude that players born late in the calendar year should avoid dropping out of the sport at an early age. The disadvantages of playing older and bigger children during their junior years will not continue into senior tennis, where there are great rewards, both financial and glory. Indeed when looking at the top 100 junior boys and junior girls in the world at the moment, the season of birth bias is actually worse than in the senior ranks. There were 79 of these juniors born in the first quarter of the year, 60 in the second, 37 in the third and only 24 in the fourth quarter. Susan sees this as evidence of two things when relating to the senior season of birth distribution.

• Firstly, there are junior players ranked in the top 100 simply because they are enjoying a relative age advantage if born in the first half of the year. Some of these players will fall in the senior rankings as they lose their relative age advantage.
• Secondly, there are potentially talented tennis players failing to make the top 100 juniors in the world simply because they are disadvantaged by being born late in the year. Some of these young players will rise through the senior ranks once they are adults.

The findings of Susan Edgar's project have implications for talent identification in tennis, the coaching of junior players as well as the sponsorship of perceived talented players by commercial organisations seeking exposure of their brand and products.

Susan, from Omagh, graduates from the University of Ulster with a BSc Sport, Exercise and Leisure with second class honours (upper division) and a Diploma in Industrial Studies with commendation. She has been accepted onto the University's Postgraduate Certificate in Education (Physical Education) for September 2003.

Graduation News Update

For further information, please contact:

Press Office Department of Communication and Development
Telephone: 028 9036 6178
Email: pressoffice@ulster.ac.uk