10th November 2003

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Razzamatazz may backfire, says University of Ulster analyst.

Political parties are increasingly using theatrical-style politics and political stunts in the run-up to this month's Assembly election but the tactics may backfire, according to University of Ulster politics analyst Paul Dixon.

In an analysis of the Assembly election and last month's failed choreographed move to revive the power-sharing government, Dr Dixon says skills employed by key political players and the British and Irish governments at crunch times in the peace process have created a culture of public scepticism and distrust which may have an impact in the polls.

Dr Dixon said: “Last month's fiasco appears to have been designed to deliver a major push to the peace process and reassure unionism that the 'war is over'. But the choreography, which has been used before to establish a performance, which various actors would perform to the applause of their key audiences, broke down.

“It remains to be seen whether this particular dance can be revived in time to win over unionism to support pro-Agreement parties.

“In a short time we will know what impact this fiasco has had on the audience - who will on 26 November get their chance to deliver their verdict on what they have seen on the political stage.

“Performances have become more important as politicians compete for attention and the support of the audience. The drama becomes more heightened in an election period as politicians try to persuade voters to support them. The curtain is rising on a new scene in Northern Irish politics.

“Already we have seen SDLP spokesman Joe Hendron binning a copy of a report from former Sinn Fein Health minister Bairbre de Brun, Gerry Adams talking of the 'the road to peace' and Ian Paisley unveiling a 'Battle Bus' with images of DUP candidates on the same day as David Trimble is filmed in front of a Mini - the latest slogan chosen by the UUP as part of their 'Simply British' slogan.”

Dr Dixon said the problems facing pro-Agreement parties in the run-up to the election for the hearts and minds of Northern Ireland voters can be traced to the overuse of spin by politicians and the British and Irish governments to save the peace process.

“Politicians have manipulated rather than persuaded public opinion, trying to lead it towards an accommodation while at the same time maintaining their political popularity.

“The result is that the standing of key pro-Agreement politicians amongst their own electorate has been eroded as this manipulation has been exposed. Last month's hype of 'a significant day' may have been a step too far for voters when events panned out differently and turned into something of an anti-climax.”

The performance of parties in the polls will not be helped by a low turnout.

“Opinion polls suggest that there is a declining faith in the political parties and this may well cause some voters - particularly pro-Agreement unionists - to stay at home. Bad weather may also reduce the turnout. But on the other hand, there is still all to play for and all parties will be employing theatrics to provoke an emotional response from people and mobilise them to vote.”

Ironically, said Dr Dixon, political parties will have to give their best "performance" if pro-Agreement politicians are to muster sufficient votes to keep the peace process on track and to ensure a quota of Assembly members elected will make the Stormont power-sharing administration workable when it is revived.

“While it is unrealistic to expect complete honesty from politicians, a greater degree of honesty might restore trust in the electorate in the peace process”, Dr Dixon added.

For further information, please contact:

Press Office Department of Communication and Development
Telephone: 028 9036 6178
Email: pressoffice@ulster.ac.uk