20th November 2003

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Cynicism, retreat and uncertainty are main features - UU expert.

The initial optimism felt by ordinary people after the Good Friday Agreement has given way to cynicism about the whole political process and the political parties in Northern Ireland - and many people are switching off from politics, according to a University of Ulster expert.

In an article, Constant crisis-permanent process, published today in the Global Review of Ethnopolitics journal, Dr Gilligan, a sociology lecturer at the University's Magee campus, said:
“Politics has become a private matter among politicians - and the public are excluded. The latest deal in October was a prime example. Only the leadership of the Ulster Unionists and Sinn Fein knew what was going on. Not even their respective members were in the loop. Nobody else had a clue what was going on.

“In this situation it is no surprise that people are switching off from politics.

“The traditional mutual distrust between Nationalist and Unionist has become subsumed within a wider distrust of the political process itself."

Dr Gilligan said the current political uncertain situation was adding to the confusion amongst the electorate.

“There is no idea of where the peace process is going. This in turn sows confusion amongst the electorate. Even the parties are not clear where the peace process is going, he said.

“During the conflict the parties knew where they stood and so to did their voters. Now it’s not clear where anybody stands.

“I suspect in this election it will be a case of people voting against parties rather than for parties, because of the sense of mistrust in relation to the peace process. But it is too close to call - all four main parties are neck and neck.”

Dr Gilligan said the peace process has also made it harder for parties to read rivals' actions.

“As the peace process has developed, it has become increasingly difficult for parties to read the actions of their opponents: sometimes it is even unclear who their opponents are, and consequently this does not provide a useful guide to action.

"And as politics becomes increasingly a private matter, parties are losing touch with people on the ground. All of this adds up to a situation of uncertainty and ambiguity in which parties are increasingly rudderless, and ordinary people increasingly disinterested,” he said.

“In this situation, anti-Agreement Unionists can sit on the sidelines and hope to reap the electoral rewards of not being tainted by association with the Agreement. The strength of anti-Agreement Unionism does not derive from any vigorous agency on its own part, but from the diminished agency of others.”

However, Dr Gilligan said the peace process is unlikely to be destroyed by the election results, but would face recurrent crises.

“The peace process is likely to endure even if the DUP become the largest Unionist party in Northern Ireland.

“But as long as cynicism, retreat and uncertainty are the main features of the political landscape in Northern Ireland, however, the peace process will continue to be characterized by recurrent crisis.”

For further information, please contact:

Press Office Department of Communication and Development
Telephone: 028 9036 6178
Email: pressoffice@ulster.ac.uk