News Release
Northern Ireland house prices maintain growth – UU survey
The housing market in Northern Ireland is holding up and unlike other parts of the UK has yet to experience any reversal, according to the region’s most authoritative survey of house prices.
The latest University of Ulster Quarterly House Price Index produced in partnership with the Bank of Ireland and supported by the Northern Ireland Housing Executive reveals that the annual rate of growth in house prices in the third quarter of this year was 9.85%.
The survey for the quarter from July to September showed that the overall average price of residential property reached a new high of £114,150, a modest increase over the third quarter.
The report from the University of Ulster is based on a sample of 2,102 open market transactions across the entire range of house types.
In the previous quarter the annual increase in price was 10.55%, reaching double digits for the first time since 2002. The latest survey shows that the annul rate of growth slowed only slightly.
The authors of the House Price Index - Professor Alastair Adair, Professor Stanley McGreal and Suzanne Allen of the University of Ulster – said: “With an annual rate of increase just below 10%, the market in Northern Ireland does not appear to be suffering any reversal in average price as a result of higher mortgage rates – contrary to some recent surveys of the wider UK market.
“However, we believe the effect of higher rates may become more apparent in future quarters.”
Bank of Ireland’s Head of Research in Northern Ireland, economist Alan Bridle, said: “Overall performance is closely aligned to the buoyancy of the terraced and semi-detached segments which account for 60% of the sample in this survey, and it is here that the ‘critical mass’ of transactions remains around the £100,000 mark.
“Even allowing for mortgage rate rises, the affordability of debt servicing in Northern Ireland remains good for those already on the housing ladder. But there is evidence to suggest that first time buyers are finding it increasingly difficult to raise the deposit needed to get into the market.”
The survey showed considerable variation in house prices across the different regions of Northern Ireland but for most areas the picture is still one of growth.
The value of the Northern Ireland House Price Index, which is calculated relative to the base quarter for the survey in 1984, has risen significantly to a new high of 437.32.
The Housing Executive’s Head of Research Joe Frey said that the Housing Executive welcomed the continued stability in Northern Ireland's housing market. Its annual review of the market indicated that while prices were unlikely to fall, house price increases were likely to be more subdued next year as recent interest rate increases, higher fuel prices and signs of an oversupply in the investment market combined to dampen demand. Nevertheless he stressed that this would not address the increasing difficulty being experienced by first-time buyers in and around Belfast where demand for land and houses remains high.
Property types
Detached bungalows showed the strongest annual rise, up 17.5% to an average of £152, 857 while semi-detached bungalows increased by 11.24% to an average of £99,653.
Semi-detached houses went up 9.18% to £106,401. Detached houses rose slightly less, up 8.65% to an average of £170,291.
Terraced housing went up 13.16% over the year to average £88,048. With a market share of 30% this is one of the best performing sectors, indicating a vibrant market in a traditional housing niche.
Apartments, which perform differently from other property types, showed a drop of 2.11% over the year to an average price of £99,543 reflecting a more diversified range of apartment types and location. The report says that despite the flatter price structure, apartments are taking a growing share of the market and account for 11% of the sample.
Location
In Belfast the overall average price of £113,902 reflected an annual rate of growth of 7.76% and a quarterly rise of 1.63%.
The highest priced city location remains south Belfast where prices went up by 12.21% over the year to an average of £153,716 – making this the most expensive place in Northern Ireland to buy a house.
East Belfast with an average of £126,924 is the next highest-priced location within the city, with an annual increase of 6.82%.
Price levels in West Belfast averaged £87,621, an increase of 5.16%.
North Belfast, with an average of £85,174, experienced a higher rate of increase than either the west or east of the city, with prices rising 9.72% over the year.
In North Down the average price of £120892 represented a decline of 3.8% over the year but that masked a complex picture. Whilst most house types showed strong annual increases, detached houses fell by just under 1% and Apartments were down by 7%.
In Lisburn the overall average price of £127,354 represents an annual increase of 5.36% and a decline of 2.48% over the previous quarter. Over the year all property sectors showed an increase, except apartments.
East Antrim saw a stronger performance, with the average price of £97,461 up by 9.42% over the year and 1.84% up on the quarter.
In the north and north west, the market remains strong but with variations. In Antrim/Ballymena the average house price of £104,900 was slightly down over the year (0.58%) but up 2.21% over the last quarter.
In Coleraine, Limavady and the North Coast the cost of property has risen appreciably with an annual increase of 8.44% to £117,354.
In Derry/Strabane the overall average price of a house has now exceeded the £100,000 mark. With an annual rate of increase of almost 14%, the average property costs £100,606.
In the west, the Mid-Ulster market the annual increase of almost 17% pushed the average price to £116,785, up 1.77% on the previous quarter. Enniskillen/Fermanagh/South Tyrone saw an annual rise of 8.92% to an average of £116,851.
In the south, Craigavon/Armagh experienced an annual price inflation just over 12% to an average of £108,582.
Mid and South Down, with an average of £130,771 and an annual price increase of 21.36%, is the top performing market outside Belfast. The average price was up more than 6% over the previous quarter with most sectors of the market seeing growth.
Ends
Media contacts: For UU: David Young, Press Office, University of Ulster
02890 365131.
For Bank of Ireland: Alan Watson or Catherine Agnew at Citigate 028 9039 5500.
For NIHE: Imelda McGrath / Jim Murray 028 9031 8700
For further information, please contact:
David Young
Telephone: 028 90366074
Email: David Young
